Market Morning: Trump Tapes, Trade Détente, Whirlpool Whirling, Saudi Stagflation

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Market Morning: Trump Tapes, Trade Détente, Whirlpool Whirling, Saudi Stagflation

Trump On Tape Planning to Buy Playboy Model’s Silence In Cash; Clintons Smirk

A secretly recorded conversation between President Trump and his lawyer Michael Cohen was revealed on CNN yesterday, with the part getting the most attention being Trump’s suggestion that a Playboy model be paid in cash to silence her about rumors of an extramarital affair. If this is the worst dirt that Cohen can dig up on Trump, then he’ll probably be in the clear. One wonders how many times conversations like this occurred between former President Bill Clinton and his various lawyers, considering the sheer volume of extramarital affairs he had. If Democrats attempt to impeach the president for this, possibly on tax evasion for paying in cash or something, then markets will have a fit, but we are still far from that point.

SEE: Cryptocurrency News Roundup July 24

Trump Challenges Europe to Détente In Trade War

In a provocative but hopeful Tweet yesterday, President Trump publicly suggested that Europe drop all tariffs, subsidies, and barriers to trade with the United States, and that the US would reciprocate by doing the same. The full tweet:

The European Union is coming to Washington tomorrow to negotiate a deal on Trade. I have an idea for them. Both the U.S. and the E.U. drop all Tariffs, Barriers and Subsidies! That would finally be called Free Market and Fair Trade! Hope they do it, we are ready – but they won’t!

If Europe does accept this proposal, stocks in the US and across the water will probably skyrocket and consumer prices will drop.

Related Tickers: (NYSEARCA:SPY) (NYSEARCA:EWG) (NYSE:VGK)

Whirlpool Gets Hit With An Expensive Steel 2×4 Thanks to Tariffs

Speaking of tariffs, Whirlpool (NYSE:WHC) fell 14.5% yesterday, falling to 5-year lows, on very expensive steel, which is of course thanks to tariffs, meant to protect American companies that sell steel, to the detriment of American companies that buy steel. “Global steel cost has risen substantially, and, in particularly in the U.S., they have reached unexplainable levels,” said Whirlpool CEO Mark Bitzer. Au contraire Mr. Bitzer, the levels are quite explainable. They’re because of steel tariffs, but it’s all for national security so don’t worry about it. The company expects to pay $350 million more on raw materials this year than previously expected, proceeds which will go to the government and the US steel industry, who will probably use it to buy back stock instead of expand, because if they expand and the tariffs are removed, they’ll be in big trouble.

Deutsche Bank Did Less Bad Than Everybody Thought, Investors Meekly Cheer

Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB), the German megabank that everyone loves to hate, had better than expected profit forecasts yesterday, more than double actually, even though the bank posted a 14% year over year profit drop for the quarter. Which really shows you how low market expectations are for Deutsche these days. The stock popped about 0.8% on the news. The bank continues a cost-cutting program that aims to boost profit margins and keep the bank in business during the next downturn, which could happen at any time. It already failed Federal Reserve stress tests, which weren’t that hard to pass given that every bank in the US passed them.

Saudi Arabians Struggling Under Government Spending Cuts

The average Saudi Arabian is loading up on more debt thanks to government spending cuts and price rises. Since the state controls fuel and utility prices among other markets, they can set the price that they want, and they’ve raised them in order to stem budget deficits from low oil prices. Even though they are almost $70, the Saudis had gotten used to prices in the triple digits. Though mainstream media is blaming the spike in the Saudi Arabian inflation rate on government spending cuts, it’s hard to see how cuts in spending lead to price rises. More likely this is just a delayed reaction to doubling of the SAR supply since 2008, though the supply has been stable since 2015. The Saudi Arabian economy could be at the beginning stages of stagflation, given rising prices and GDP contraction since 2017.

Related Tickers: (NYSEARCA:KSA)