Laura Martin, a financial analyst at Needham & Company claims that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) could earn as much as $3 billion from Pokemon Go app sales over the next one to two years.
Martin released a note to investors revealing that she obtained the sales figures using numerous data points. She considered that Apple keeps 30% of the revenue it earns from apps from external developers. In this case, the Pokemon Go developers will keep 70% of the earnings from sales on the App Store while Apple will get to keep the rest. Martin also reported more data from the Pokemon Go app citing that it managed to achieve 6% penetration in the US. It currently has roughly 21 million users.
The analyst believes that the app could peak at 20% penetration in countries where it has been launched. This means Apple will receive 5 cents from every Pokemon Go player every day and this income will come from in-app purchases. When the numbers were punched in, they translated to $3 billion in total earnings within a period of 12 to 24 months. The in-app purchases allow users to buy extra storage, poke balls, incense, lure and lucky eggs, all components of the game.
Pokemon Go is currently dominating in-app purchases in the mobile gaming industry in the US. A report from Slice stated that the game’s in-app sales represented 47% of all the in-game sales registered in the entire US mobile gaming scene on July 10. Another analytics firm called Sensor Tower reported that Pokemon Go generated about $1.6 million on iOS on average every day six days after its launch. By that time there were roughly 10 million downloads on iPhones alone.
The current figures are simply projections of how the game may perform if most factors are held constant. However, it is difficult to determine the actual outcomes since a lot could change over the next few weeks or months. It is also not clear how long the Pokemon Go hype will last.