Is There a Death Cross In Our Future?
Futures are vacillating between slightly down and going nowhere this morning. S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) futures are down less than a tenth of a percent, and the Nasdaq (NYSEARCA:QQQ) and Dow Jones (NYSEARCA:DIA) are down less than two tenths as investors are awaiting key earnings today. The technical picture is getting strained though, as the 50 day moving average is converging on the 200 DMA. Stocks have been below the 50 DMA for 7 trading days now, and is only 74 points away from the 200. If the 50 goes below the 200, doomsday prophets fondly call this a “death cross”. Will we see one form over the next few days? The last time we did was at the beginning of 2016. Stocks were resurrected from death by May of that year.
The Winner Today in Cryptocurrency is…
Bitcoin Private. BTCP was forked off the Bitcoin blockchain back on February 28th, and it is taking off once again, up 30% over the last 24 hours. The creators claim it is more private than BTC as senders and recipients are unidentifiable. The new cryptocurrency is still below its all time highs of $86 though. Market cap is still below $1 billion. In a sign of strength though for digital currencies, the combined market cap of all coins has remained over $400 billion since Friday. How much longer can it hold?
Read Why Canada is Experiencing a Bitcoin Mining Boom
When 53 Million iPhones Are Not Enough
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) will tell the world how many iPhones it sold in the last quarter. Consensus estimates are 53 million, and nails are being bitten over the final tally. Watch the price action in after hours trading, as the company will report only after the closing bell. If Apple beats on iPhone sales, revenues and earnings and price pumps and then dumps, it would be a sign that investors are selling into strength in a defensive shift. If shares have a sustained climb in after hours, that would be evidence of the current short-term downtrend abating.
He Tariffs Me, He Tariffs Me Not
In another presidential move showing decisiveness and consistency, US President Donald Trump has decisively and consistently changed his mind once again over tariffs. He has postponed his decision on steel and aluminum tariffs against imports from the European Union, Canada, and Mexico for another month. While this could be a negotiating tactic, it could also just be confusion and chaos inside the big white building at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Whoever writes the authoritative history of the Trump White House will have the final say. In the mean time, United States Steel Corporation (NYSE:X) and AK Steel Holding Corporation (NYSE:AKS) are both down in the premarket. In a bid to end the uncertainty emanating from Trump’s vacillating policy objectives, Germany is now saying that it wants a trade deal.
The Fed Meets, The Market Tweets
The Federal Open Market Committee is meeting again today for two days. At the end of the meeting on Wednesday, its members will tell us if they will by buying or selling US Treasuries on net to try and tweak overnight interest rates, or do nothing differently and try to keep them where they are. Most traders in overnight rate futures assume that they will stay where they are, but also assume that the committee will sell Treasuries in order to raise overnight rates in June. Given that the new Fed Chair Jay Powell probably does not want to rock the boat so early in his tenure and that inflation is still pretty muted though rising, he’ll probably follow the expectations of traders so as to keep stocks steady and away from that death cross edging precariously closer.