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Oil Down Despite Saudi Arabia, Venezuela Meeting

Crude oil is back in the red after the much-awaited meeting between OPEC members Saudi Arabia and Venezuela concluded without provide any strong indication that measures will be taken to help oil prices stabilise.

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Brent futures lost $0.61 to trade at $33.45 while WTI Crude oil fell by as much as 1.59% to trade at a level near $30. The volume in oil was thin as most of Asia’s markets were closed on account of the Chinese Lunar New Year.

Saudi Arabia’s oil minister Ali al-Naimi had a formal discussion with his Venezuelan counterpart over the possibility of cooperation between OPEC and non-OPEC members to strengthen the oil price. The meeting, which took place on Monday did not reach any specific agreement regarding a further meeting between oil producing countries any time soon. While both countries called the meeting successful and productive, analysts did not really get a clear hint as to the purpose of it or what it supposedly accomplished.

Analysts not optimistic

David Hufton, analyst at PVM Oil Associates, warned that oil prices are set for another bumpy ride unless there is any surprising bullish news over the next few days.

Aside from that, statements from Tehran have kept the market nervous. Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh stated that a number of companies in Europe have expressed interest in buying oil from them, which further confirms the fear that the oil oversupply is not going to be resolved shortly.

With nothing new on the horizon, market participants are tuned to U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s statement to lawmakers on Wednesday. Also, the market will anxiously wait for data from the Energy Information Administration, which is due to be released on the same day.

Alongside this, the monthly reports on oil to be released by the International Energy Agency, as well as OPEC this week, will grab most of the market’s attention. iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSEARCA:OIL) had lost 1.64% to $4.81 during the last trading session.

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China Closed As Global Markets Dominated By Negative Sentiment This Week

As the week began in Asia, only Japan’s Nikkei 225 managed to add gains of 1.1% to close today at 17,004 as the most of the region remained closed on account of the Chinese Lunar New Year.

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Nikkei reverses

Japan’s Nikkei had pared its early morning losses to close on a positive note. According to analysts, volume in Asian stock markets that are open will be below average until Chinese investors resume trading next week. Australia’s ASX closed 0.07% lower at 5,022.10. Mumbai’s Sensex was seen trading 0.55% lower at 24,481 today.

Gloom around Europe

Meanwhile, European markets remained uneasy after a cautious opening for most of the Eurozone and broader EU. The beginning of the week did not start on a positive note as British business confidence hit its lowest levels in the last three years. The decline in UK business confidence adds to fears that the global economy is slowing down. The uninspiring news led the Economic Intelligence Unit’s Robin Bew to opine that another interest rate hike is unlikely for another three years.

Following the reports, England’s FTSE 100 posted a fall of more than 1.7%. Euronext 100, and France’s CAC 40 are down over 2%, and Germany’s DAX is already down by more than 2.5% with over 5 hours to go in the trading day. Switzerland’s Swiss Market Index also plunged by close to 2%.

There was no end to the negative reports from the Eurozone as Sentix added to worries after reporting a drop in the investor morale index. According to the Frankfurt-based body, investor morale breached a 10-month low to 6 in February from 9.6 in January. The agency commented that the Eurozone is not immune to the global economic uncertainties.

Apart from this, sentiment in the U.S. remained subdued after the U.S. jobs report came into light. The U.S. labor department posted an addition of 151,000 jobs in January versus the forecast of 190,000 while the unemployment rate fell to 4.9%. However, the market seemed to be divided over the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, and sentiment was largely negative. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the week 1.29% lower at 16,204 while S&P 500 Index had shed 1.85% to close at 1,880.05.

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Greenback Reclaims Strength After Mixed U.S. Jobs Report

An positive but slowing U.S. jobs report is helping keep the dollar high against a basket of other global currencies this morning as the trading week kicks off. According to the most recent U.S. jobs report, wage growth showed improvement in January, rekindling hopes that the economic environment is conducive for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year.

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Wage data

The U.S. Department of Labor posted a 0.5% rise in average hourly earnings in January, signifying a 2.5% increase year-over-year. A total of 151,000 jobs were created in the past month, which came 39,000 lower than projections of a survey of economists. However, subdued job growth did not impact the unemployment rate, which fell to 4.9%. The data fueled hopes, or perhaps fears, of a possible rate hike this year.

The euro is trading down against the dollar slightly by 0.04% to 1.1151. In the Eurozone, market participants will watch for Germany’s industrial production data to assess the direction of the economy. Fourth-quarter preliminary growth data will also be a key number ahead in the week.

Chinese New Year

At the same time, developments in Chinese markets will be limited as China remains closed throughout the week due to the beginning of the Lunar New Year. As per the data released last week, China’s foreign reserves declined by nearly $100 billion for the third month in a row. USD stands at 6.5739 against the Yuan today.

Meanwhile, a weaker current account scenario has put pressure on the Japanese Yen, which lost momentum against the dollar. The dollar rallied by nearly 0.22% to 117.15 today after average wages in Japan grew by 0.1% year-on-year. The lack of recovery in wages coupled with inflating prices of basic commodities is preventing consumers from spending more, which is likely to negatively impact the Bank of Japan’s target of achieving 2% inflation.

Like other currencies, GBP too shed gains and was trading 0.08% lower at 1.4489. The U.S. Dollar Index for March delivery remained up by 0.05% to 97.03 as of today.

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2016 Hasn’t Been Good For Tech Stocks…Yet.

LinkedIn Corp (NYSE:LNKD)

The current year appears to be a terrible one as far as technology stocks are concerned. The tech bourse, NASDAQ witnessed a 12.9% drop this year alone as some of the leading companies were seeing major downside pressures. The falling trend has been widespread in the last few weeks after reports of a slowdown in China. It was not just the listed companies, but even the privately held tech shares valuation were also getting hammered.

Some Of The Stocks In The Negative Territory

There are some shares in the negative territory for the year to date. LinkedIn Corp (NYSE:LNKD) shares plummeted by over 51% while Fitbit Inc (NYSE:FIT) shed 47% in the current year. Another major tech stock, Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) lost 32%, and Workday Inc (NYSE:WDAY) fell 16.35%. Also, three of the four FANG stocks were underwater. They are Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX), and Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) were in the red while Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) is at a break-even point. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is also in the red only for the current year and its results will provide further direction.

There are already slogans as far as the last year and current year is concerned with some viewing the year 2015 as unicorns whereas the current year is termed as the magical glue. Current market conditions are worrying Wall Street to the point swhere many analysts are already drawing comparisons to the dot com boom-bust of 2001-2002.

Losses Are Evenly Distributed

There is, at least, one difference in the current free for fall tech stocks. The losses are widespread and evenly distributed unlike the previous bubble. For instance, Nasdaq witnessed 53% drop between the year 2000 and the year 2002. In the same period, the other two broader indices, S&P500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Averages’ witnessed a downtick of 22% and 13% respectively.

In the current bear phase, the S&P 500, as well as, the Dow Jones dropped by over 8% each. However, the loss was considered small considering Nasdaq shed 12.9%. There were also not many differences between the three major indices between the years 2007 and 2009.

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Phase Ib Topline Could be Make or Break for Voyager Therapeutics

The biotech IPO space has been sparse over the last few months, as a number of high profile offerings have delayed or fallen through on weak capital flow expectations. One that did go through, however, and (arguably) successfully, was that of Voyager Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:VYGR). The company launched to NASDAQ with an $80.5 million draw ($72.7 million net), and across the subsequent four weeks gained 70% to log 2015 highs of a little over $30 a share.

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At last close, however, Voyager stock traded at just $10.5 a share, 65% off highs. There haven’t really been any major fundamental updates to drive this decline – a few reiterated ratings by analysts, a financial report with no real surprises and, most recently, the promotion of its senior vice president of finance and business development, to chief financial officer – suggesting the decline comes on the back of wider biotech weakness rather than a sentiment shift specific to the company.

In turn, it flags the company as a potential discount entry. If market perception drove the company to highs on the potential of its pipeline, then that valuation could well be more accurate than today’s. Of course, and as always, there are some stumbling blocks to regaining that valuation. Let’s have a look at what the company is developing in an attempt to determine whether the current price is justified.

The company’s pipeline contains five candidates, each with a separate CNS target. Only one, however, is anywhere near commercialization, and even that is a good few years from an NDA. With this in mind, the assumption is that the company’s valuation is rooted in the potential of this one candidate – VY-AADCO1 – a Parkinson’s disease drug. We’ve discussed the Parkinson’s space a few times before on Market Exclusive, but if you’ve missed these discussions, they all boil down to one thing: Parkinson’s is notoriously difficult to treat. More than 90% of Parkinson’s drugs fail to demonstrate efficacy in phase III, and they can be very costly to develop due to the comparative lack of scientific understanding we currently have about the root cause, and progression, of the disease. Having said this, it’s one of those “holy grail” areas. A company that successfully develops a cure has a fast track to blockbuster status, which is why so many companies allocate so high a level of resources to the space.

The company has developed what it calls AAV technology, which is a way to deliver a transgene into a patients CNS. Transgene is just a term for the introduction of a gene into a patient – in this instance it’s achieved using a viral vector. With VY-AADCO1, the gene that codes for the production of an enzyme called AADC is introduced. Parkinson’s patients gradually lose the ability to produce AADC, which is essential in converting what’s called levodopa to dopamine – and the lack of dopamine causes the symptoms associated with disease progression.

Similar treatments are available generically in pill form, but their efficacy reduces the longer a patient takes the drug. By introducing AADC producing genes, Voyager is hoping its treatment will overcome this efficacy degradation. The drug is currently in a phase Ib, so we’ve not got much to go on from a data perspective, but topline is expected during the second half of this year. If we get proof of concept from the trial, it could quickly add some upside to Voyager’s market cap.

There are downsides, however. The treatment requires surgical administration, and many Parkinson’s patients are elderly and – as such – risky candidates for surgical procedures. This will play into the risk benefit analysis performed by the FDA if the drug reaches that stage. Additionally, the company is hemorrhaging money. It netted a $22 million loss for the nine months to September last year, and these losses will increase as the development timeline progresses.

On the other side of the coin, Sanofi (NYSE:SNY), through its subsidiary Genzyme, is funding a large portion of the trial, having announced what what could amount to an $845 million deal this time last year.

So what’s the verdict? Well, it’s a risky allocation – that’s a sure thing. Having said this, it’s got the backing of a biotech behemoth and a pipeline of new approaches to CNS diseases – a very lucrative market if any reach commercialization. Topline will be pivotal in forming a bias. If we see efficacy, expect some upside and a reversal in sentiment to bullish. If not, the company could be looking at a considerable hit.

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China’s Foreign Exchange Reserves Poised to Report Second Straight Monthly Drop

Foreign Exchange

China’s foreign exchange reserves are poised to report a second straight monthly drop as the country was busy in intervening and supporting its local currency, the yuan. On Sunday, the People’s Bank of China will publish the figures, which are expected to fall to $3.2 trillion in January representing a drop of $118 billion. The drop could exceed December’s $108 billion fall.

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Propping Up a Weakening Currency

China has already witnessed a capital outflow of $1 trillion last year amid flagging growth as policy makers were busy defending the yuan, which weakened to a five-year low in December. That was because the People’s Bank of China placed restrictions on the rate at a surprisingly weak level. That signaled that it was ready to tolerate depreciation even as the country’s growth is slowing down. Last year, the total draw-down was over $500 billion and capped the first yearly drop in foreign exchange reserves since 1992.

Oppenheimer Funds’ Chief Investment Officer Krishna Memani said that China was recording a considerable outflow of capital with astounding reductions in their capital account. He said that the economy alone could not turn the situation around and that policy makers would have to intervene. He blamed the accelerated draw-down on the surprise devaluation of its local currency last August. As a result, reserves dropped $94 billion in that month alone, which was a record at that point in time.

Reserves Still the Largest

In 2014, China’s foreign exchange reserves swelled to nearly $4 trillion from about $21.2 billion in 1993 representing growth by a factor of nearly 200. Despite dropping 17% since then, the country’s foreign exchange reserves continue to the largest horde in the world and are near triple that of Japan, which has the second biggest stockpile.

Barclays PLC (NYSE:BCS) Chief Economist for China, Jian Chang, expects a $140 billion drop in foreign exchange reserves, which was one of the largest estimated drops in the survey of economists. The survey indicated that Azhou Hao, Commerzbank AG, and two more expect the reduction of reserves to be $80 billion. For the current year, the country expects growth to be 6.5 – 7%.

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The Banking Sector Is Now On Activist Investors’ Radar

Banking

Historically, banks have not been top targets of activist investors, though Billionaire investor Carl Icahn did pick up American International Group Inc (NYSE:AIG) recently. It now appears that many activist investors are placing their bets on the American banking sector as headwinds whipping through the industry have hasten the decision for industry consolidation.

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Several activist investors unveiled 97 campaigns last year in the financial sector in the United States. That was nearly triple the number compared to the year 2009 when a similar campaign was launched on the heels of the financial turmoil that paralyzed the sector. In the current campaigns, 22 were said to be focused on banks, up from 8. The number has been growing annually since.

Hedge funds have been boosting their stakes in lenders throughout America be it big regional lenders or community banks. Industry troubles lately include a lack of returns on equity, tough regulations, and the long-spell of ultra low interest rates. As a result, some could be forced to scout for suitable buyers. For their part, buyers appear to be ready to pay a strong multiple of book value.

Energy-Associated Loans

Reuters reported that energy-connected loans were the other factor that was pulling down the valuations of some bank, making them vulnerable to a takeover. Jones Day law firm partner Ralph MacDonald, commented that the bigger banks were back in the market for shopping. MacDonald is a a specialist in mergers and acquisitions.

Last year, mergers and acquisitions in the banking sector in America recorded a volume growth of 58% to $34.5 billion. Hedge fund PL Capital indicated that it was raising $200 million with a specific target on banks with a maximum of $50 billion in assets.

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Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) Echo Just Got Spotify

Amazon will outperform this year

Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) has finally confirmed the rumors that Spotify premium subscribers can listen to their favorite playlists on Amazon Echo. By simply asking Alexa to play the playlist and genre, enjoying a Spotify catalog is now possible for Amazon Echo users.

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In addition, Amazon Echo supports Spotify Connect which means that users can easily transfer their playlist from their Spotify app to Amazon Echo. This can easily be done by selecting Echo from the list of devices on the Spotify app.

With the new Spotify addition, playing music on Echo is only a voice command away. Spotify subscribers only need to sign into their accounts using the Alexa app on either iOS or Android. After that, they can can control their music using voice commands.

According to Amazon, the new Echo upgrade enables a seamless transition between home and on-the-go listening. It will now be possible for Echo users to hand off their playlist from mobile devices to Echo Speakers and it will automatically continue from where they left off.

Access to more music

These additions have been viewed as a sign for bigger things lined up for Amazon Echo fans as Amazon continues to turn the service into an open-ended platform. In fact, this is a major change in Amazon’s strategy.

While Amazon Prime Music offers more than a million songs, Spotify claims to have more than 30 million songs. With the Spotify inclusion on Echo, users can now enjoy 30 times more songs with only a simple spoken command.

Echo is not the only Amazon segment that got an upgrade. Fire TV has also been upgraded to 2nd generation which includes integration with Amazon Echo. This comes after a long awaited promise by Amazon to include this functionality on their 1st generation set top boxes.

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Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Safe Browsing To Tackle Fake Download Buttons

How many times does this happen to users? You are browsing a website that appears to be safe and relatively innocent in search of a file. You come across what seems to be a legitimate download link, so you click it. However, that routes the user to a completely different site that at best is advertising and at worst is malware. Or the button downloads files onto your system that is not the file you were looking for.

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Keeping computers secure has never been simple but nowadays just safeguarding against malware and viruses using software tools isn’t sufficient. Increasingly deceptive tricks are being utilized on the web. However, Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) is doing what it can to combat this.

For a long time the organization’s safe browsing has safeguarded against phishing but late last year it also introduced fresh features to safeguard against misleading links. Google declared yesterday that it is building on that by blocking websites with what it regards to be “deceptive ads.”

When ads or other embedded content act, feel and look similar to a trusted entity such as a user’s own browser or device or the website itself, or attempt to trick users into doing something they would only do for a trusted entity such as calling tech support or share passwords this will be regarded as deceptive.

Websites that regularly use these annoying practices have the risk of being flagged by Google. Chrome will display a big, red warning page that blocks you from entering the relevant website unless the user fully agrees with the risks.

Alphabet gave many examples in its blog post on the issue. Deceptive ads include update notifications, play buttons for media files, fake download buttons and more. This builds on existing safeguards against similar practices that were introduced in November last year. Past updates have safeguarded against major attacks such as content that feigns being from a government or bank or content that tries to trick users into dialing a fake technical support number. A few of these still get through Safe Browsing but appear to be less widespread than before.

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Logitech (NASDAQ:LOGI) Launches Enriched G810 Gaming Keyboard For $160

Would you pay $160 for a computer keyboard? Logitech International SA (NASDAQ:LOGI) is telling you not to hesitate. Its G810 Orion Spectrum keyboard asks for that much, but Logitech says you get much more than just a keyboard. The G810 keyboard is designed with gamers in mind, but it also works well for general use.

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An ordinary gaming keyboard might only set you back $20. Logitech says that you don’t always get what you need to enhance the gaming experience. That explains why the company believes that its G810 keyboard will succeed in the market.

According to Logitech, the G810 is designed to deliver comfort and visual enhancements for gamers. Based on Romer-G mechanical technology, the new keyboard is 25% faster than standard mechanical switches in registering key presses. That makes it a more responsive keyboard for controlling gameplays.

Personalization

Logitech new keyboard provides users with the opportunity to customize key lights. A user can choose to light up different keys with different colors to keep better focus on the controls. Users can choose from over 16.8 million color options to give the keyboard the right illumination. Further, it also boasts enriched media controls.

Logitech is well known for its chic product design rather than entirely new product concepts. Consumers buy its products for style and comfort, which is what the company is aiming at with the new keyboard that fits well within its business model.

A message to investors?

With the rise of touchscreen devices, there have been worries among investors that Logitech could be coming to the end of its life, or at least, its growth. Modern touch devices accommodate fewer peripheries like mice or keyboards if they are needed at all, yet Logitech’s business is first and foremost peripherals.

With this move, the company is signalling that it can unlock new growth opportunities in the traditional PC market and develop accessories that enhance the experience of using a touch device. G810 seems to be part of the story of its attempt at transformation from within its existing model.

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