Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ:CELG) may not be far away from launching a potential blockbuster. The positive view comes as a result of having its experimental multiple sclerosis drug attain long-waited goal in patients with relapsing multiple sclerosis. The oral drug, which was being compared to Biogen Inc (NASDAQ:BIIB) Avonex proved superior in a second late-stage study in reducing annualized relapse rates.
The U.S. biotechnology company will be filling an application by the end of the year and if it is approved, the drug could become a future blockbuster. John Sonnier who is a William Blair analyst estimates that relapsed multiple sclerosis are likely to have grown up to $25 billion by 2020. Hence, the drug be riding on a well-outlined global commercial opportunity.
Ozanimod failed to slow disability progression
Despite its positive results in the annualized relapse rates, ozanimod was not any better in disability progression. From the two trials, Avonex stayed ahead, which is more or less a missed opportunity for differentiation. Apparently, a majority of investors were keen on its disability benefit over Avonex.
However, there is hope for Ozanimod according to Clarivate Analytics who claim that it should be able to generate about $2 billion by 2022. The drug came into Celgene ownership after the $7.2 billion acquisition of Receptos Inc in 2015.
If approved, ozanimod would find a competitive market
All eyes are now on the approval of ozanimod. However, the drug, though very promising will have to compete with the likes of Novartis AG (ADR)(NYSE:NVS) Gilenya and Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (ADR)(NYSE:TEVA) Copaxone, which have been longer in the market. Generic copies will be entering the market by 2019.
Clearly, ozanimod will have to prove its worth in a market where cheaper versions of the well-known drugs have become the order of the day. However, Celgene executives are optimistic that it will be differentiated from Gilenya on the basis of improved safety profile. Thus it is reafy to take the challenges.
Meanwhile, Celgene’s stock was trading at $115.71 a fall of $1.22 or 1.04%.
